Wall-E Will Lift Disney
July 31st, 2008Wall Street, meet Wall-E. Thanks in part to the success of Pixar Animation Studio’s Wall-E, a robot love story, Walt Disney should beat Wall Street estimates when it releases third-quarter earnings on Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters forecast earnings of 61 cents per share on revenue of $9.1 billion for the period through June.
Last quarter, Walt Disney (nyse: DIS – news – people ) reported better-than-expected results due to strong performances in its film, broadcasting, and theme-park units, including strong international sales of shows like “Grey’s Anatomy,” “Lost,” and “Dirty Sexy Money.” (See “Disney’s Magic Kingdom Of Profit”) While analysts expect growth to continue in film and broadcasting, theme park revenue should be down due to the calendar shift of the Easter holiday from the third quarter of 2007 to second quarter of this year.
Disney’s Media Networks division had a mixed third quarter. Its cable division should show growth, thanks to high NBA playoff ratings that led to a strong performance at ESPN. Viewership of ABC Family, Disney’s third-largest ad revenue generator, increased by 18 percent. The company’s broadcasting unit stumbled, however, in the third quarter. The writers’ strike led to a 15 percent drop in average primetime ratings among adults 18-49. Because of the strike, the network has fewer episodes of Lost, Desperate Housewives, Ugly Betty, and Brothers and Sisters to put into syndication, and ABC Studios should show modest decline due to lower international syndication revenues.
Despite the success of Pixar’s Wall-E, which was the ninth straight number one launch for a Pixar Studio film, Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein expects the company’s film division to report its weakest quarter of the year. High prints and advertising costs for Wall-E and another third quarter release, “The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian,” should lower margins. Third-quarter film revenue will pale in comparison to last year’s results, which were buoyed by the blockbuster “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End.” Even so, Helfstein expects the film division to beat Wall Street estimates.
Helfstein predicts that Disney’s theme parks and resorts division will have a weak third-quarter performance on early signs of recession, with the worst still to come as higher airfare costs have a greater negative impact later in calendar 2008. Disney execs have reported strong summer bookings, thanks to international visitors taking advantage of the weak dollar.

